RBI: interest rate cuts
Apex bank leaves India Inc. disappointed
Seems that the stalled growth engine of India Inc. will have to wait for some time more before it gets some further rev ups. In its latest review of monetary policy, the RBI decided to keep benchmark interest rates and cash reserve ratios unchanged, leaving many market participants and analysts crestfallen as they were hoping for further cut in policy rates. On the contrary, the central bank warned that reducing key policy rates at this juncture could accelerate inflation rather than spur growth. This stand of RBI is in divergence with its earlier stated policy of bringing down the interest rate if core inflation is below 5% (core inflation was hovering around 4.9% at the time of the announcement.) Currently, repo rate (the rate at which RBI lends funds to other banks) and cash reserve ratio are at 8% and 4.75% respectively. However, RBI has increased the limit of export credit refinance from 15% of outstanding export credit of banks to 50%, which will potentially release an additional liquidity of over Rs.300 billion, equivalent to about 50 basis points reduction in the CRR. But RBI’s stance is going to baffle foreign investors no end. After a span of two years, even China has now started to reduce its interest rates in an attempt to boost the economy. Brazil, another member of the BRICS club, has also been cutting its key policy rates for quite some time. Even a recent report of rating agency Moody’s has said that India could turn out to be the weakest amongst all BRICS countries.
Oil: high diesel demand
Private refiners make hay
Due to the huge difference in the prices of diesel and petrol, the demand for diesel in the country has shot up. So much so that demand outstrips supply by a wide margin. Demand for diesel has skyrocketed and exceeds supply because of petrol prices, which is 70% costlier than diesel. As a result, PSU oil refiners have been forced to buy diesel from Reliance Industries Ltd and Essar Oil. State run oil firms like Hindustan Petroleum, Indian Oil and Bharat Petroleum are buying nearly 15 million tonnes of diesel per year from the two private refiners. Essar Oil operates 1,391 operational outlets, including 249 under construction. Reliance has about 700 operating outlets. The private refiners are able to charge diesel at international prices from the PSU refiners leading to huge windfall gains for the former. On the contrary, state firms are suffering a revenue loss of Rs.10.20 per litre of diesel they sell in the retail market. IOC, India’s biggest oil refiner with a capacity to process 66 MT crude oil, annually bought about 42% diesel from other domestic refiners in the first two months of the current financial year. The company produced 4,485.4 thousand metric tonne diesel in first two months of the current financial year against a sale of 6,371.2 TMT in the same period. According to oil ministry’s data keeper, Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell, while petroleum consumption recorded monthly growth at 0.2% in April (lowest in the last one-and-half years), about 47% of total consumption in that month was of diesel. “This is one strong indicator of dieselisation of the economy due to price distortion among competing fuels,” PPAC said in its latest report. Diesel rates in the country are frozen since June 2011. It is sold at Rs.41.29 a litre in Delhi while petrol costs Rs.70.24 a litre in the metro.
Apex bank leaves India Inc. disappointed
Seems that the stalled growth engine of India Inc. will have to wait for some time more before it gets some further rev ups. In its latest review of monetary policy, the RBI decided to keep benchmark interest rates and cash reserve ratios unchanged, leaving many market participants and analysts crestfallen as they were hoping for further cut in policy rates. On the contrary, the central bank warned that reducing key policy rates at this juncture could accelerate inflation rather than spur growth. This stand of RBI is in divergence with its earlier stated policy of bringing down the interest rate if core inflation is below 5% (core inflation was hovering around 4.9% at the time of the announcement.) Currently, repo rate (the rate at which RBI lends funds to other banks) and cash reserve ratio are at 8% and 4.75% respectively. However, RBI has increased the limit of export credit refinance from 15% of outstanding export credit of banks to 50%, which will potentially release an additional liquidity of over Rs.300 billion, equivalent to about 50 basis points reduction in the CRR. But RBI’s stance is going to baffle foreign investors no end. After a span of two years, even China has now started to reduce its interest rates in an attempt to boost the economy. Brazil, another member of the BRICS club, has also been cutting its key policy rates for quite some time. Even a recent report of rating agency Moody’s has said that India could turn out to be the weakest amongst all BRICS countries.
Oil: high diesel demand
Private refiners make hay
Due to the huge difference in the prices of diesel and petrol, the demand for diesel in the country has shot up. So much so that demand outstrips supply by a wide margin. Demand for diesel has skyrocketed and exceeds supply because of petrol prices, which is 70% costlier than diesel. As a result, PSU oil refiners have been forced to buy diesel from Reliance Industries Ltd and Essar Oil. State run oil firms like Hindustan Petroleum, Indian Oil and Bharat Petroleum are buying nearly 15 million tonnes of diesel per year from the two private refiners. Essar Oil operates 1,391 operational outlets, including 249 under construction. Reliance has about 700 operating outlets. The private refiners are able to charge diesel at international prices from the PSU refiners leading to huge windfall gains for the former. On the contrary, state firms are suffering a revenue loss of Rs.10.20 per litre of diesel they sell in the retail market. IOC, India’s biggest oil refiner with a capacity to process 66 MT crude oil, annually bought about 42% diesel from other domestic refiners in the first two months of the current financial year. The company produced 4,485.4 thousand metric tonne diesel in first two months of the current financial year against a sale of 6,371.2 TMT in the same period. According to oil ministry’s data keeper, Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell, while petroleum consumption recorded monthly growth at 0.2% in April (lowest in the last one-and-half years), about 47% of total consumption in that month was of diesel. “This is one strong indicator of dieselisation of the economy due to price distortion among competing fuels,” PPAC said in its latest report. Diesel rates in the country are frozen since June 2011. It is sold at Rs.41.29 a litre in Delhi while petrol costs Rs.70.24 a litre in the metro.
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