The long-term fate of the Congress in Odisha will crucially hinge on whether it can cash in on the anti-incumbency factor in the 2014 Assembly polls, writes Dhrutikam Mohanty
For Odisha Congress, there is hope in the air. But so is trepidation. Leaders of the state party may not admit as much, but they are acutely aware that the 2014 Assembly polls will be their last chance to bounce back after being out of power for a decade and a half. On the face of it, the current political scenario in Odisha seems to be in favour of Congress, which has been out of power since 1999. With the anti-incumbency factor kicking in, this is the party’s best chance to topple the Naveen Patnaik government.
Congress, which held uninterrupted sway over Odisha for 35 years after Independence, is now facing an acid test. If it can’t get its act together this time around, it could well mean the beginning of another long spell in the wilderness.
The ruling Biju Janata Dal (BJD) could face dissidence over distribution of party tickets. Its former strategist, Pyari Mohan Mohapatra, has floated a new political party, Odisha Jana Morcha (OJM), and has announced his intention to upset Naveen Patnaik’s applecart. Many BJD poll ticket aspirants could gravitate towards OJM if they are not nominated by the ruling party.
Having been BJD’s election manager in the last two elections, Pyari Mohan knows the party’s chinks. He will definitely play a role in diverting the BJD vote towards non-BJD candidates. This is bound to work to the advantage of the Congress.
The launch of Pyari Mohan’s new political party last week has stirred the pre-poll pot. He announced he would go in for an alliance with any non-BJD party to oust the “blind and autocratic government of Naveen Patnaik”. He claimed that national-level leaders of many political parties are in touch with him for pre-poll tie-ups. He said his alliance will win 80 to 85 seats (in the 147-member Assembly).
Asked about the possibility of OJM joining hands with Congress in Odisha, state Congress president Niranjan Patnaik says, “We are a national party, so any-poll alliance has to be decided at the central level. But Mohapatra has declared that OJM will contest 110 seats. This leaves only 37 seats for the Congress at best. How can we accept this?”
The results of the recent civic body elections in the state have been a shot in the arm for Congress. Candidates of OJM and Congress won most of the seats in the polls in Hindol, Atabira and Nuapada.While in the newly-formed Hindol Notified Area Council (NAC), Congress won seven and OJM-supported independents won six seats, the ruling BJD managed to get only two seats out of a total of 16.
Similarly, Congress won seven seats in Nuapada NAC against BJD’s four. In the newly formed Atabira NAC, Congress and BJD won six seats each. Political analysts say this is the first poll setback for BJD after Pyari Mohan’s suspension.
But is Congress ready to make the most of the opportunity? “I don’t think so,” says senior political analyst Prashant Patnaik. “Organisationally, Congress is weak. The party faces acute infighting and the senior leadership is bitterly divided.”
Dissidence has indeed been the bane of Odisha Congress for the past decade and a half – a fact that has harmed the party’s stocks in the eyes of the public.
The last spell of Congress rule in Odisha was under Janaki Ballava Patnaik in 1995. It was chaotic and scandal-ridden. Corruption charges, scandals and weak leadership made the party unpopular. The party’s decline in Odisha began when it failed in relief and rehabilitation work in the aftermath of the 1990 super cyclone.
In the 2000 Assembly elections, Congress was down to only 26 seats from 80. In 2004, the party did marginally better, winning 38 seats. In the current Assembly, however, the party has 27 seats. Similarly, while Congress won nearly 35 per cent of the vote in 2004, its vote share declined to 29 percent in 2009.
Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi visited the state in February. During his two-day stay, he interacted with party functionaries at the district, block and panchayat levels and held marathon sessions. He wanted to figure out why Congress had become so weak in Odisha.
After Rahul’s visit, the state Congress leadership declared that grassroots workers would have a say in the selection of the party’s poll candidates, preference would be given to youth, and no family would be allowed to field more than one aspirant.
Sivananda Ray, state Congress vice-president claims, “People are no longer obsessed with the so-called clean image of Naveen. They are fed up with rampant corruption and irresponsible administration. I strongly believe Congress will return to power.”
If it does not, the party would be in danger of going into terminal decline in Odisha the way it has done in Tamil Nadu, Gujarat and Chhattisgarh.
The Congress last ruled Tamil Nadu in 1967. Since then, it has only been riding piggyback on either of the two main Dravidian parties, DMK and AIADMK. The recent UNHRC resolution on Sri Lanka was a good opportunity for the party to attempt a political comeback. But that opportunity was lost. Right now, the national party is seen as a liability in TN and no outfit would want to align with it to fight the 2014 Lok Sabha polls.
Similarly, Congress has been out of power for over 20 years in Gujarat, with Narendra Modi performing an electoral hattrick. Problems abound for the party in the state, once its stronghold.
The situation is no different in Chhattisgarh, where a factionalism-ridden Congress is struggling to make a comeback. The Raman Singh-led BJP is eying a hattrick in the state. Last year, soon after the Congress defeat in the Bastar Lok Sabha byelection, a young Congressman had accused the party of being “BJP's B team”.
For Odisha Congress, there is hope in the air. But so is trepidation. Leaders of the state party may not admit as much, but they are acutely aware that the 2014 Assembly polls will be their last chance to bounce back after being out of power for a decade and a half. On the face of it, the current political scenario in Odisha seems to be in favour of Congress, which has been out of power since 1999. With the anti-incumbency factor kicking in, this is the party’s best chance to topple the Naveen Patnaik government.
Congress, which held uninterrupted sway over Odisha for 35 years after Independence, is now facing an acid test. If it can’t get its act together this time around, it could well mean the beginning of another long spell in the wilderness.
The ruling Biju Janata Dal (BJD) could face dissidence over distribution of party tickets. Its former strategist, Pyari Mohan Mohapatra, has floated a new political party, Odisha Jana Morcha (OJM), and has announced his intention to upset Naveen Patnaik’s applecart. Many BJD poll ticket aspirants could gravitate towards OJM if they are not nominated by the ruling party.
Having been BJD’s election manager in the last two elections, Pyari Mohan knows the party’s chinks. He will definitely play a role in diverting the BJD vote towards non-BJD candidates. This is bound to work to the advantage of the Congress.
The launch of Pyari Mohan’s new political party last week has stirred the pre-poll pot. He announced he would go in for an alliance with any non-BJD party to oust the “blind and autocratic government of Naveen Patnaik”. He claimed that national-level leaders of many political parties are in touch with him for pre-poll tie-ups. He said his alliance will win 80 to 85 seats (in the 147-member Assembly).
Asked about the possibility of OJM joining hands with Congress in Odisha, state Congress president Niranjan Patnaik says, “We are a national party, so any-poll alliance has to be decided at the central level. But Mohapatra has declared that OJM will contest 110 seats. This leaves only 37 seats for the Congress at best. How can we accept this?”
The results of the recent civic body elections in the state have been a shot in the arm for Congress. Candidates of OJM and Congress won most of the seats in the polls in Hindol, Atabira and Nuapada.While in the newly-formed Hindol Notified Area Council (NAC), Congress won seven and OJM-supported independents won six seats, the ruling BJD managed to get only two seats out of a total of 16.
Similarly, Congress won seven seats in Nuapada NAC against BJD’s four. In the newly formed Atabira NAC, Congress and BJD won six seats each. Political analysts say this is the first poll setback for BJD after Pyari Mohan’s suspension.
But is Congress ready to make the most of the opportunity? “I don’t think so,” says senior political analyst Prashant Patnaik. “Organisationally, Congress is weak. The party faces acute infighting and the senior leadership is bitterly divided.”
Dissidence has indeed been the bane of Odisha Congress for the past decade and a half – a fact that has harmed the party’s stocks in the eyes of the public.
The last spell of Congress rule in Odisha was under Janaki Ballava Patnaik in 1995. It was chaotic and scandal-ridden. Corruption charges, scandals and weak leadership made the party unpopular. The party’s decline in Odisha began when it failed in relief and rehabilitation work in the aftermath of the 1990 super cyclone.
In the 2000 Assembly elections, Congress was down to only 26 seats from 80. In 2004, the party did marginally better, winning 38 seats. In the current Assembly, however, the party has 27 seats. Similarly, while Congress won nearly 35 per cent of the vote in 2004, its vote share declined to 29 percent in 2009.
Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi visited the state in February. During his two-day stay, he interacted with party functionaries at the district, block and panchayat levels and held marathon sessions. He wanted to figure out why Congress had become so weak in Odisha.
After Rahul’s visit, the state Congress leadership declared that grassroots workers would have a say in the selection of the party’s poll candidates, preference would be given to youth, and no family would be allowed to field more than one aspirant.
Sivananda Ray, state Congress vice-president claims, “People are no longer obsessed with the so-called clean image of Naveen. They are fed up with rampant corruption and irresponsible administration. I strongly believe Congress will return to power.”
If it does not, the party would be in danger of going into terminal decline in Odisha the way it has done in Tamil Nadu, Gujarat and Chhattisgarh.
The Congress last ruled Tamil Nadu in 1967. Since then, it has only been riding piggyback on either of the two main Dravidian parties, DMK and AIADMK. The recent UNHRC resolution on Sri Lanka was a good opportunity for the party to attempt a political comeback. But that opportunity was lost. Right now, the national party is seen as a liability in TN and no outfit would want to align with it to fight the 2014 Lok Sabha polls.
Similarly, Congress has been out of power for over 20 years in Gujarat, with Narendra Modi performing an electoral hattrick. Problems abound for the party in the state, once its stronghold.
The situation is no different in Chhattisgarh, where a factionalism-ridden Congress is struggling to make a comeback. The Raman Singh-led BJP is eying a hattrick in the state. Last year, soon after the Congress defeat in the Bastar Lok Sabha byelection, a young Congressman had accused the party of being “BJP's B team”.
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