Ten reasons why India would grow almost as strongly as it has done in the past many years
Let’s demolish some myths and finally bury some shibboleths while talking about the Indian economy. And let’s do that with unadulterated facts; not prejudice and perceptions. The most pernicious one is the one related to that fancy term called ‘de-coupling’. Last fall, when the meltdown started in Wall Street, many in India insisted that we will not be affected because we are not really all that integrated with the global economy. And now, we have the same set of people saying that we are quite integrated after all; and we will feel the pain. That is utter nonsense as historical data bear out. Even during the old glory days of crony socialism, when the Indian economy was inward looking, global economic shocks always adversely affected India.
In 1967, when Europe and America were hit by a crisis of confidence, the Indian economy literally tanked. In 1973, after the oil shock roiled the global economy, GDP growth rate collapsed in India. In 1979, after the second oil shock, GDP growth rate collapsed all over again and India went to IMF for a bailout. When the global economy was entering a mini recession in 1990, the Indian economy again collapsed and the powers that be again went hat in hand to IMF. GDP growth rates in India tumbled yet again after the East Asian financial crisis of 1997. The ‘dot-com’ bust across the world in 2001 again led to growth rates crashing in India. So let’s stop fooling ourselves with this ‘de-coupling’ nonsense. The Indian economy will definitely be affected during the ongoing crisis. We can’t wish away bad news.
And yet, there are very strong reasons why the Indian economy will be the most successful one when it comes to riding out the current storm. And there is little doubt that it will be the first economy to emerge stronger with a more solid foundation of sustained growth. Surprised with such a statement when all you get is hysterically bad news from media vehicles? Don’t be. Here are the ‘fact’ based reasons why:
Let’s demolish some myths and finally bury some shibboleths while talking about the Indian economy. And let’s do that with unadulterated facts; not prejudice and perceptions. The most pernicious one is the one related to that fancy term called ‘de-coupling’. Last fall, when the meltdown started in Wall Street, many in India insisted that we will not be affected because we are not really all that integrated with the global economy. And now, we have the same set of people saying that we are quite integrated after all; and we will feel the pain. That is utter nonsense as historical data bear out. Even during the old glory days of crony socialism, when the Indian economy was inward looking, global economic shocks always adversely affected India.
In 1967, when Europe and America were hit by a crisis of confidence, the Indian economy literally tanked. In 1973, after the oil shock roiled the global economy, GDP growth rate collapsed in India. In 1979, after the second oil shock, GDP growth rate collapsed all over again and India went to IMF for a bailout. When the global economy was entering a mini recession in 1990, the Indian economy again collapsed and the powers that be again went hat in hand to IMF. GDP growth rates in India tumbled yet again after the East Asian financial crisis of 1997. The ‘dot-com’ bust across the world in 2001 again led to growth rates crashing in India. So let’s stop fooling ourselves with this ‘de-coupling’ nonsense. The Indian economy will definitely be affected during the ongoing crisis. We can’t wish away bad news.
And yet, there are very strong reasons why the Indian economy will be the most successful one when it comes to riding out the current storm. And there is little doubt that it will be the first economy to emerge stronger with a more solid foundation of sustained growth. Surprised with such a statement when all you get is hysterically bad news from media vehicles? Don’t be. Here are the ‘fact’ based reasons why:
Source : IIPM Editorial, 2012.
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri
and Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist).
For More IIPM Info, Visit below mentioned IIPM articles.
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri
and Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist).
For More IIPM Info, Visit below mentioned IIPM articles.
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